中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年3月7日报道，根据周二发布的最新版《短期能源展望报告》，美国能源信息署（EIA）下调了其对2023年和2024年天然气价格的预测。

EIA目前预计，今年天然气均价为3.02美元/百万英热单位，较之前预估的3.40美元/百万英热单位下降11.2%。相比之下，EIA估计，2022年天然气价格平均为6.42美元/百万英热单位。

EIA还将明年的天然气价格预测下调至3.89美元/百万英热单位，低于之前报告中预测的4.04美元/百万英热单位。

EIA认为，由于“非常温和的天气降低了对空间供暖的需求”，美国第一季度天然气平均每天消费量为991亿立方英尺，比去年同期下降了5%。EIA认为，住宅和商业天然气消费量降幅最大。

由于对天然气消费量下降的预期，EIA现在预计美国将在3月底结束天然气提取季节，天然气库存将超过1.9万亿立方英尺，这一数字比五年平均水平高出23%，比EIA在1月份《短期能源展望报告》中预测的数字高出27%。

EIA表示，美国国家海洋和大气管理局1月和2月的初步数据显示，2023年的前两个月可能接近1895年数据有记录以来的最高温度。温和的天气集中在美国东部。

天然气价格3月6日下跌12%，为1月30日以来最大跌幅，原因是天气预报显示天气变暖，供暖需求下降。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

EIA Lowers Forecast For Natural Gas Prices

The Energy Information Administration has decreased its forecast for natural gas prices for 2023 and 2024 according to the latest edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Tuesday.

The EIA now sees natural gas prices averaging $3.02 per MMBtu this year, down 11.2 percent from its previous forecast of $3.40 per MMBtu. For comparison, natural gas prices averaged $6.42 per MMBtu in 2022, the EIA estimates.

The EIA has also lowered its forecast for natural gas prices for next year, to $3.89 per MMBtu, down from its estimate of $4.04 per MMBtu made its previous report.

The EIA sees natural gas consumption averaging 99.1 billion cubic feet per day in Q1, down 5% from the same quarter last year on the back of “very mild temperatures that have reduced demand for space heating.” The EIA sees the largest decline in residential and commercial natural gas consumption.

With this anticipation of lower natural gas consumption, the EIA now expects the United States will close the withdrawal season at the end of March with more than 1.9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in storage—a figure which is 23% more than the five-year average and 27% more than what the EIA forecast in its January STEO.

The EIA said that preliminary data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for January and February indicate the first two months of 2023 may be close to the warmest on record for that period in data going back to 1895. The mild weather was concentrated in the eastern part of the United States.

Natural gas prices fell 12% on Monday—the largest drop since January 30—driven by forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand.