工业信息资源公司认为波动性使新的北美液化天然气项目的投资决策变得模糊

美国液化天然气出口设施开发商可能会在未来五年内启动价值1000亿美元的新厂

加拿大终于开始采取措施建设液化天然气出口项目

中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年3月24日报道，工业市场情报提供商工业信息资源公司(IIR)周五在一份新的研究报告中表示，美国和加拿大新的液化天然气出口项目显示出加速的迹象，但天然气价格的波动使得对未来供需的押注变得更加困难。

IIR在一份声明中表示，“但太多太快的项目可能会压垮整个行业。天然气价格的波动使人们难以押注未来，而出口减少了国内需求。”

在加拿大，不列颠哥伦比亚省政府已经允许投资72亿美元的Ksi Lisims浮式液化天然气设施进入环境审查程序。此举是在加拿大西海岸的另一个项目Cedar液化天然气获得批准之后，而此前壳牌公司在基蒂马特的大型项目也取得了积极进展。

据IIR称，这些液化天然气设施如果进展到建设和运营阶段，可能会为加拿大提供一个出口北亚市场的液化天然气出口渠道。

美国也在建设新的液化天然气出口设施。

由于高价格和能源安全需求为长期液化天然气需求和合同创造强劲动力，美国液化天然气出口设施开发商可能在未来五年内启动价值1000亿美元的新厂。

著名能源咨询公司伍德麦肯兹在最近的一份报告中表示，在自由港液化天然气出口设施恢复运营后，美国今年将超过卡塔尔和澳大利亚，成为全球最大的液化天然气出口国。

但根据IIR的分析，在可预见的未来，美国天然气日产量预计将徘徊在1000亿立方英尺左右。

报告称：“天然气仍是美国国内能源结构的重要组成部分，预计产量将徘徊在近五年平均水平。”

根据美国能源信息署（EIA）公布的数据，美国基准现货亨利中心天然气价格将从2月的低点上涨，原因是自由港液化天然气出口设施重新开放的需求上升，电力行业需求的季节性增长，以及2023年剩余时间内国内天然气产量相对持平，原因是生产商为了应对价格下跌而减少钻井活动。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

North American LNG Projects Plagued By Price Volatility

·     Industrial Info Resources: volatility obfuscates investment decisions on new North American LNG projects.

·     Developers of U.S. LNG export facilities could launch $100 billion worth of new plants over the next five years.

·     Canada is finally taking steps to build LNG export projects.

New U.S. and Canadian LNG export projects show signs of accelerating but volatile natural gas prices are making bets on future supply and demand difficult, industrial market intelligence provider Industrial Info Resources (IIR) said in new research on Friday.

“But too much too fast could overwhelm the sector. Volatility in natural gas prices makes it difficult to bet on the future and exports take away from domestic needs,” IIR said in a statement.  

In Canada, the provincial government of British Columbia has allowed the US$7.2 billion floating Ksi Lisims LNG facility to enter the environmental review process. The move followed consent for Cedar LNG, another project planned for Canada’s western coast, and both come on the heels of a positive step forward for Shell’s mega project at Kitimat.

Those LNG facilities, if progressed to construction and operations, could offer Canada an export outlet to the prized North Asian markets, according to IIR.

The U.S. is also progressing with new LNG export facilities.

Developers of U.S. LNG export facilities could launch $100 billion worth of new plants over the next five years as high prices and the need for energy security create strong momentum for long-term LNG demand and contracts. 

The United States is set to overtake Qatar and Australia as the world’s top LNG exporter this year after Freeport LNG resumes operations, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in a recent report. 

But U.S. natural gas production is expected to hover around 100 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) for the foreseeable future, per IIR’s analysis.

“Natural gas remains an essential component of the domestic energy mix and production is expected to linger close to the five-year average,” it said.

According to the EIA, the U.S. benchmark spot Henry Hub prices are set to go up from the February lows due to rising demand from the Freeport LNG export facility reopening, seasonal increases in demand in the electric power sector, and relatively flat domestic gas production for the rest of 2023 as producers reduce drilling in response to lower prices.