中国石化新闻网讯 据天然气加工新闻网4月19日报道，周三美国天然气期货价格较前一交易日创下的一个月高点下跌约5%，由于天气预报证实，未来两周天气基本保持温和，供暖需求较低。

尽管初步日产量有所下降，而且在得克萨斯州自由港液化天然气出口工厂于2月结束为期八个月的停工后，流入美国液化天然气（LNG）出口工厂的天然气量仍有望在4月份连续第二个月创下历史新高，但价格还是出现了下跌。

美国东部时间上午9时15分（格林尼治标准时间13时15分），纽约商品交易所5月交货的即月天然气期货下跌12美分，跌幅5.1%，至每百万英热单位2.246美元。周二，该合约上涨约4%，收于3月16日以来的最高点。

在过去一个月左右的时间里，市场一直极不稳定，在过去22个交易日中，即月涨幅或跌幅超过5%的交易日有10个。

随着天然气市场波动加剧，周二美国天然气基金的流通股攀升至创纪录的1.813亿股，超过了4月10日创纪录的1.769亿股。UNG是一种交易所交易基金（ETF），旨在跟踪天然气的每日价格走势。

根据数据提供商Refinitiv的数据显示，于2022年6月因火灾而关闭的自由港液化天然气出口工厂，周三有望日投入约22亿立方英尺的天然气。

这与该工厂在4月的大部分时间里一直在投产的情况相同，高于自由港液化天然气可转化为液化天然气供出口的21亿立方英尺/日的天然气。液化天然气工厂通常会投入比转化为液化天然气多一点的天然气，因为他们使用一些燃料为生产液化天然气的设备提供动力。

到目前为止，美国所有七家大型液化天然气出口工厂的日均天然气流量从3月份创纪录的132亿立方英尺上升到4月份的141亿立方英尺。

美国七大液化天然气出口工厂可将约138亿立方英尺/日的天然气转化为液化天然气。

供需情况

据Refinitiv称，到目前为止，美国本土48个州的日均天然气产量从3月份的997亿立方英尺上升到4月份的1002亿立方英尺。相比之下，1月份的月度纪录为1004亿立方英尺。

然而，按日计算，由于宾夕法尼亚州和西弗吉尼亚州的产量下降，过去几天的产量下降约15亿立方英尺/日，周三降至993亿立方英尺的两周低点。不过，分析人士指出，初步数据通常会在当天晚些时候进行修正。

气象学家预测，除了4月23日至25日和5月1日至3日的一些比正常天气冷的日子外，本土48个州的天气将在4月基本保持正常。

据Refinitiv预测，随着季节性天气转暖，包括出口在内的美国天然气需求将从本周的959亿立方英尺/日降至下周的955亿立方英尺/日，由于预计流向液化天然气工厂的天然气将减少。这些预测与Refinitiv周二的展望相似。

2022—2023年冬季的温和天气使公用事业公司储存的天然气比平时更多。

根据联邦数据和分析师的估计，截至4月7日的一周，天然气库存比五年平均水平（2018—2022年）高出约19%，预计截至4月14日的一周比往常高出约23%。

郝芬 译自 天然气加工新闻网

原文如下：

U.S. natgas futures drop 5% on forecasts for mild weather

U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% on Wednesday from a one-month high in the prior session on forecasts confirming the weather will remain mostly mild and heating demand low for the next two weeks.

That price decline came despite a drop in preliminary daily output and as the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants remained on track to hit a record high for a second month in a row in April after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February.

Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 12 cents, or 5.1%, to $2.246 per million British thermal units at 9:15 a.m. EDT (1315 GMT). On Tuesday, the contract gained about 4% to close at its highest since March 16.

The market has been extremely volatile over the past month or so with the front-month gaining or losing more than 5% on 10 of the past 22 trading days.

With gas market volatility rising, shares outstanding in the U.S. Natural Gas Fund climbed to a record 181.3 million on Tuesday, topping the prior record of 176.9 million on April 10. UNG is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to track the daily price movement of gas.

Freeport LNG's export plant, which shut in June 2022 after a fire, was on track to pull in about 2.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas on Wednesday, according to data provider Refinitiv.

That is the same as the plant has been pulling in during most of April, which is above the 2.1 bcfd of gas Freeport LNG can turn into LNG for export. LNG plants usually pull in a little more gas than they can turn into LNG because they use some of the fuel to power equipment used to produce LNG.

Average gas flows to all seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 14.1 bcfd so far in April, up from a record 13.2 bcfd in March.

The seven big U.S. LNG export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG.

Supply and demand

Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 100.2 bcfd so far in April, up from 99.7 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 100.4 bcfd in January.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 1.5 bcfd over the past couple of days to a preliminary two-week low of 99.3 bcfd on Wednesday due mostly to declines in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Analysts, however, noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April , except for some colder-than-normal days from April 23-25 and May 1-3.

With the weather turning seasonally warmer, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would ease from 95.9 bcfd this week to 95.5 bcfd next week due to an expected decline in gas flows to LNG plants. Those forecasts were similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday.

Mostly mild weather during the winter of 2022-2023 allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual.

Gas stockpiles were about 19% above their five-year average (2018-2022) during the week ended April 7 and were expected to end about 23% above normal during the warmer-than-usual week ended April 14, according to federal data and analysts' estimates.