中国石化新闻网讯 据天然气加工新闻网2023年3月14日报道，业内分析师表示，全球范围内将在本十年中期上线的大量液化天然气出口项目，将与成本较低的可再生能源和复兴的核电行业展开竞争，这可能会影响天然气价格，并影响一些拟议中的液化天然气项目。

拟议和批准的新液化天然气厂将使全球液化天然气年供应量从2021年的水平增加67%，至2030年前的6.36亿吨，届时可能会使全球天然气市场饱和。

美国著名液化天然气出口商切尼尔能源公司首席执行官杰克·富斯科上周在休斯敦举行的一次能源会议上表示：“目前世界上正在建设的天然气基础设施价值超过一万亿美元。天然气市场将出现长期转变，天然气将继续存在。”

在卡塔尔，一个大规模的液化天然气扩建项目到2027年前将年增4900万吨液化天然气。根据FactSet公司BTU Analytics汇编的数据，到2027年底前，美国项目的液化天然气年产能可能增加1.25亿吨 (164亿立方英尺/天)。

从这些项目可能面临的潜在波动中可以看出，去年液化天然气价格因欧洲强劲需求而飙升，但随后随着库存增加以及客户抵制高价格并转向其他能源而下滑。

这种转变只会加速。据说气候智库Ember估计，仅在2021年，风能和太阳能发电在全球发电中所占的份额就从一年前的1%跃升至10%以上。

与此同时，全球核能发电正在反弹：日本计划到2030年前将核能发电在电力中所占的比例从去年的不到7%提高到至少20%。法国计划在2035年前建造6座新核电站。

需求的不确定性

业内分析师认为，液化天然气价格在2027年左右之前将保持强劲，但在那之后，由于需求前景不明朗，液化天然气价格可能会下降。

标普全球(S&P Global)全球天然气战略主管迈克尔·斯托帕德表示：“业内关注的一大不确定性是，高价格对中期天然气需求造成了多大损害。”

由于价格飙升，标普全球将新兴市场液化天然气的需求增长预期推迟了两年。

美国能源经济与金融分析研究所（IEEFA）2月份在一份报告中表示，液化天然气“获得了一种昂贵且不可靠燃料的声誉”，这可能危及在需求前景最高的亚洲建设新液化天然气进口终端的计划。

由于疫情防控和价格波动，亚洲大国去年液化天然气的进口量减少20%。IEEFA称，印度、巴基斯坦和孟加拉国去年也把液化天然气采购总量削减16%。

处境危险的项目

在美国，由于今年北半球冬季相对温和，加之液化天然气价格上涨，导致美国天然气价格低于新生产成本，导致钻井活动减少，天然气市场在今年年初出现波动。

埃森哲战略主管Muqsit Ashraf预计，到2027年前后，强劲的需求将支撑液化天然气价格。 

曾负责埃森哲战略全球能源业务的Ashraf说：“在那之后会发生什么，更多的是一场辩论，取决于今年的投资决定如何发展。”

主要液化天然气设备供应商美国贝克休斯公司今年1月份曾警告称，成本通胀和利率上升放缓了液化天然气项目最终投资决定的步伐。

不过，贝克休斯公司预计今年获批的液化天然气项目数将“大幅增长”。今年的第一个获批的液化天然气项目是在3月13日，Venture Global LNG公司批准了其2000万吨/年的Plaquemines液化天然气项目的第二阶段。

风险在于，这个项目将在需求增长放缓并冲击全球液化天然气价格之际投产。

向液化天然气出口商供应天然气的美国天然气管道运营商Williams Companies首席执行官Alan Armstrong表示：“当你听到人们说‘我们不可能过度建设’时，那就是事情过度发展的时候了。”

李峻 编译自 天然气加工新闻网

原文如下：

Wave of new LNG export plants threatens to knock gas prices

A flood of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects due online worldwide in mid-decade will vie against lower-cost renewable energy and a revived nuclear power sector, which could rock gas prices and hurt some proposed projects, analysts say.

Proposed and approved new LNG plants would boost LNG supply by 67% increase to 636 MMtpy by 2030 from 2021 levels, potentially saturating the gas market.

"There's over a trillion dollars of natural gas infrastructure being built in the world today. There's a set secular shift and natural gas that is here to stay," said Jack Fusco, CEO of LNG exporter Cheniere Energy at a conference in Houston last week.

In Qatar, a massive LNG expansion project will add 49 mtpa by 2027. U.S. projects could add 125 MMtpy (16.4 Bft3d) of capacity by late 2027, according to data compiled by BTU Analytics, a FactSet company.

In a taste of the potential volatility those projects might face, LNG prices last year soared on European demand, then slid as storage filled and customers pushed back against the high prices and switched to other energy sources.

That shift is only going to accelerate. In 2021 alone, wind and solar's share of global power generation jumped to more than 10% from just 1% a year earlier, climate think tank Ember estimates.

At the same time, nuclear is rebounding: Japan aims to boost nuclear's share of its power to at least 20% by 2030 from less than 7% last year. France is proposing to build six nuclear reactors by 2035.

DEMAND UNCERTAINTY

Analysts see LNG prices remaining strong until around 2027, but after that they may fall as the demand outlook is hazy.

"One big uncertainty the industry is focused on is how much damage the high prices has done to medium term gas demand," said Michael Stoppard, who leads global gas strategy at S&P Global.

S&P Global pushed back its demand growth outlook for LNG from emerging markets by two years due to the spike in prices.

LNG has "acquired a reputation as a costly and unreliable fuel" that could jeopardize plans to build new import terminals in Asia, the region with the highest demand outlook, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said in a report last month.

The biggest country in Asia cut its LNG purchases by 20% last year on COVID-19 curbs and price volatility. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh also slashed combined LNG purchases by 16% last year, IEEFA said.

PROJECTS AT RISK

In the U.S., gas markets saw a volatile start to the year after a relatively mild northern hemisphere winter and higher LNG prices which led to conservation sent U.S. prices below the cost of new production and led to a retrenchment in drilling.

Muqsit Ashraf, who leads Accenture Strategy, expects solid demand to support LNG prices through around 2027.

"What happens after that is more of a debate and depends on how investment decisions play out this year," said Ashraf, who previously headed Accenture's global energy practice.

Baker Hughes, a major LNG equipment supplier, warned in January that cost inflation and higher interest rates had slowed the pace of LNG final investment decisions.

Still, it anticipates "significant growth" in project approvals this year. The year's first came on Monday, with Venture Global LNG authorizing the second-phase of its 20 mtpa Plaquemines LNG project.

The risk is projects will come on line just as demand growth slows and hit global LNG prices.

"When you hear people say 'there is no way we will overbuild this,' that's when things get over-built," said Alan Armstrong, CEO of U.S. gas pipeline operator Williams Companies which supplies gas to LNG exporters.